Play as · WW3 2026 · L2 Mid-Power · Swing → East

Algeria - 2026

The largest country in Africa by area. The third-largest gas exporter to Europe (post-2022 demand surge). The most Russia-aligned mid-power in North Africa. Defense procurement dominated by Russian systems. The Algerian People's National Army is the most experienced regional force in counter-insurgency from the 1990s civil war. BRICS+ accession applications pursued with mixed success.

Starting position

Algeria in 2026 is governed by President Tebboune in his second term, consolidated post-Hirak (the 2019 protest movement that ended Bouteflika's rule). The military's institutional power - le pouvoir - remains the central authority despite the formal transition. Defense procurement under Tebboune has continued the Russian-supplier dominance: Su-30MKAs, S-400s ordered, T-90s, MiG-29Ms, plus an indigenous arms industry that produces under Russian licenses and has begun limited drone development.

The post-2022 European energy reorientation transformed Algerian gas exports. Italy in particular has displaced Russia with Algerian supply, with the TransMed and GalSi pipelines plus LNG carrying significant volumes. Spain's relationship with Algeria deteriorated sharply in 2022 after Madrid recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara - Algiers responded by suspending the friendship treaty and reducing gas supply. The Maghreb rivalry with Morocco is structural, longstanding, and recurrently tense; the border has been closed since 1994 and 2021 saw Algeria sever diplomatic relations.

Strategic levers

The instruments are gas exports (the leverage Europe cannot afford to lose, especially Italy and several Mediterranean members), the Sahara depth that Algeria has used as strategic asset since the war of independence, the Polisario relationship that gives Algeria a card to play against Morocco, the Russian defense relationship that has held even as Russia's wartime supply capacity has constrained, and a population (44 million) and resource base (gas, oil, phosphates) that gives Algeria genuine mid-tier mass.

What turns the campaign

What Algeria wants is the European gas market sustained at scale, the Russian defense relationship preserved without losing Western trade access, the Western Sahara file kept open as long as possible to constrain Morocco, the Sahel destabilization (post-French withdrawal Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger juntas) managed to prevent direct Algerian involvement while keeping influence, and the Tebboune-pouvoir governance settlement maintained without another Hirak protest cycle.

What Algeria fears is Morocco breaking the cold-war stalemate kinetically (the 2021 closure of airspace and 2022 break in diplomatic relations rehearsed the dynamic), Sahel destabilization that pushes refugees and arms north, European customer diversification that erodes the gas leverage, and any internal-politics shift back toward Hirak-era protests that the post-2019 consolidation was designed to suppress.

Signature challenge